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Monday, October 29, 2007

Jim Cramer Tries Piggybacking Carl Icahn Stocks, Fails

On the October 12th edition of Mad Money, Jim Cramer interviewed Carl Icahn and congratulated him on the bid by software giant Oracle to acquire BEA Systems (BEAS), which Icahn had been working on for months. Cramer had been recommending BEAS consistently since the summer of 2006 on a takeover possibility. In the December 11, 2006 Lightning Round, Cramer again reiterated his recommendation on the stock stating, "It has obviously been hurt by the options ugly stick, but BEAS should not be punished. That is a legitimate software transaction platform that I think one day, if they don't get the stock up, will be purchased by Oracle (ORCL)."

Again on September 18, Jim recommended BEA Systems (BEAS) on account of billionaire investor Carl Icahn's increasing share of the company, saying a buyout was imminent. Investors pocketed nearly a 40% gain in less than a month when Oracle (ORCL) announced a bid to buy the lesser competitor. (A chart of Cramer's BEAS recommendations is shown below)

Jim Cramer track record on BEAS

Near the end of the interview with Carl Icahn, Jim turned the discussion to Mr. Icahn's ongoing interest in Motorola (MOT), saying that MOT should now be bought (overturning a previously negative view on the stock) because of the activist investor's stellar success with BEAS, calling Icahn the "great value investor of our era." (A chart of Cramer's MOT recommendations is shown below)

Jim Cramer track record on MOT

Despite the large gains from the BEAS recommendation, however, using the stockTagger database, I set out to discover whether Cramer's piggybacking off Icahn's picks has been a worthwhile activity for Mad Money viewers, or simply a one time opportunity with the BEA Systems (BEAS) buyout. Using the 5 (trading) day, 10 day, 30 day, and 60 day closes after Jim Cramer's recommendation, I examined the performance relative to the S&P 500 of the five stocks he has recommended in the past because of Carl Icahn's activist holdings, including WCI Communities (WCI), Temple-Inland (TIN), Vector Group (VGR), Kraft Foods Inc (KFT), and BEA Systems (BEAS). For each recommendation, the relative S&P 500 gains are calculated from the same date and the cumulative returns for both the stocks and the S&P 500 are calculated below.

Date of CallSymbolnext day closenext day S&P
1/18/2007WCI221430.5
3/20/2007TIN59.751435.04
6/20/2007VGR21.311522.19
7/17/2007KFT35.41546.17
9/18/2007BEAS13.381529.03

Symbol5 day close/return5 day S&P
WCI19.81/ -9.95%1423.9/ -0.46%
TIN59.81/ +0.10%1428.61/ -0.45%
VGR22.26/ +4.46%1506.34/ -1.05%
KFT34.55/ -2.40%1511.04/ -2.27%
BEAS13.27/ -0.82%1517.21/ -0.77%
Cumulative-1.72%-1.00%

After 5 trading days, the stocks have underperformed the market, although Cramer has told viewers many times to wait 5 days before buying his recommendations, so we won't get too flustered about this.

Symbol10 day close/return10 day S&P
WCI21.75/ -1.14%1445.94/ +1.08%
TIN61.22/ +2.46%1437.77/ +0.19%
VGR22.15/ +3.94%1525.4/ +0.21%
KFT32.48/ -8.24%1455.27/ -5.88%
BEAS13.73/ +2.62%1546.63/ +1.15%
Cumulative-0.07%0.24%

After 10 trading days, the recommended stocks have only slighty underperformed the market, losing only -0.07% versus a gain in the S&P 500 of 0.24% for the period. Of these, Vector Group (VGR) performed the best relative to the index. Overall, not bad, but not good.

Symbol30 day close/return30 day S&P
WCI20.26/ -7.91%1387.17/ -3.03%
TIN59.78/ +0.05%1495.92/ +4.24%
VGR21.75/ +2.06%1472.2/ -3.28%
KFT31.52/ -10.96%1432.36/ -7.36%
BEAS18.82/ +40.66%1548.71/ +1.29%
Cumulative4.78%-1.63%

For the 30 day returns, the BEA Systems (BEAS) buyout is included, and the stocks have wildly outperformed the market by about 5%, but take away BEAS and the cumulative return of Cramer's Icahn recommendations are losing you -4.19% versus a loss of -1.63% in the S&P 500. Vector Group (VGR) is again holding up the other three losers.

Symbol60 day close/return60 day spy
WCI22.18/ +0.82%1471.48/ +2.86%
TIN61.46/ +2.86%1522.97/ +6.13%
VGR23.08/ +8.31%1484.25/ -2.49%
KFT34.04/ -3.84%1562.47/ +1.05%
BEAS18.82/ +40.66%1548.71/ +1.29%
Cumulative9.76%1.77%

The 60 day returns are again including the BEAS gain of 40% (we are not arbitrageurs!), but without it, we are sitting on a gain of only 2.04% versus a gain of 1.77% in the S&P 500 index! Vector Group (VGR) beats the index by over 10% while WCI Communities (WCI), Temple-Inland (TIN), and Kraft Foods Inc (KFT) are losers.

So, ineffectively, without the BEA Systems buyout, the gains from piggybacking Carl Icahn via Mad Money are merely inline over a three-four month period. From a statistics perspective, 1 out of 5 is not enough to make any sort of reliable future predictions on an 8% lead over the S&P. Viewers will have to decide whether to follow these piggybacking recommendations in the future, but suffice to say, I will not be one of them. And if you waited to buy these stocks after the five day rule that Cramer frequently advises, then your gains only increased by a modest 0.72%. Based on these findings, Cramer should stop recommending stocks based on the Icahn factor. Will investors follow Cramer's latest call to buy Motorola (MOT) on account of Carl Icahn's activities? In later posts, I will unveil more ways that Jim Cramer tries to make you money, and the real performance you won't find anywhere else. Readers are welcome to give their feedback below.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Jim Cramer Pushes Allergan (AGN) Again

Jim Cramer has been consistently positive on Allergan (AGN), telling viewers to buy the stock since 6/7/2006 when he featured it on Mad Money a little over a year ago. Since then, the stock has risen nearly 30% on the back of its diverse drug portfolio and its signature Botox treatment. On 9/5/2006, Cramer declared the stock "in perpetual mon' back mode."

Chairman and CEO David Pyott has appeared on the show twice, and Cramer gave the stock strong buy calls after each instance. On 12/11/2006, Jim was quoted as saying, "the other day we saw a downgrade of this stock by Thomas Weisel Partners, downgrading on valuation. He's wrong. David's right." Lately, on 10/5/2007, Jim noted again, "Now, I cannot stress enough how remarkable this company is, it's turned itself into a one stop shop for all the cosmetic procedures!"

Jim Cramer track record on AGN

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Cramer Hot on Top Stock NVIDIA (NVDA)

Cramer has recommended NVIDIA (NVDA) in the past but seems to be riding this recent hot stock's momentum to the moon. Last December 2006, Jim predicted NVIDIA would have an excellent month and the stock was due for a great "mark up week trade." At the beginning of the month he stated, "When a stock comes into December with a full head of steam, when it's got the big momentum, the action will generally continue right through the month, with a vengeance!" On the seventh of the month, he told viewers to stay away from the chip stocks off a bad quarter from National Semiconductor (NSM). Although, the trade hadn't been retracted completely, this negative call might have confused some viewers to trade out of a decent December run. The trade was over by the end of 2006, however, and seasonal weakness in semiconductor stocks lead NVIDIA (NVDA) to lose nearly 25% of its value.

One of Cramer's best trades undoubtedly came this year when he featured NVDA for speculation Friday on 6/15/07. "At about 22x this year's earnings estimates, NVDA is just not that expensive, especially given the earnings momentum and the likelihood that they will keep taking share"..."Are you looking for momentum? I need you to look no further than NVIDIA Corp." Since then, the stock has been on fire (or "en fuego" as Jim would say) as NVDA has gained 43% in just 3 1/2 months.

Jim Cramer track record on NVDA

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Jim Cramer calls Goldman Sachs (GS) Best of Breed

One 9/20/2007, Jim Cramer claimed that he had been behind Goldman Sachs (GS) all the way since the show started. With the stockTagger database in hand, I attempted to figure out if this has been true, and for the most part it has as Cramer rode the stock from 120 to 215 where it currently sits. Cramer has alerted viewers to short term price fluctuations in the past, being correct in almost every short-term instance.

On 5/16/06, in response to a caller's question about CME Group (CME) (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), Cramer said of financial stocks, "I happen to think that this stock is part of a complex of names including BOT, International Securities Exchange Holdings (ISE) and, let's go further, Goldman Sachs (GS), Lehman Brothers (LEH), and Bear Sterns (BSC) that is not done coming down. I see a shift in the market toward the companies that do better when the short rates are done going up, thank you Federal Reserve. And you're stock, and that whole other complex, is going to take a breather. I say, don't buy, don't buy, don't buy." He reiterated his sell on 5/17/06 and then told viewers to buy on 5/18/06 a few points lower.

On 6/14/06, during another dip in the stock, Cramer advised viewers to buy the stock down four days later, but by then it was up almost 7 points.

Most recently, Jim has called Goldman Sachs (GS) the best-of-breed brokerage over its rivals saying, "With the fifty basis point rate cut, this time has finally become the brokers' time"..."I think this stock is going much higher. How high? I think it can earn thirty dollars a share and deserves to sell at ten times earnings. So where does that put it? 30 x 10 brings it to 300 dollars, my original price target."

Jim Cramer track record on GS

Monday, September 17, 2007

Jim Cramer Picks Baidu.com (BIDU) as China Favorite

Jim Cramer has only recently remained bullish on Baidu.com (BIDU) as the price of the stock hit 128 in May 2007. He has commonly rejected owning Chinese stocks, instead recommending high quality American companies that benefit from the growth of the Chinese economy, but Baidu.com (BIDU) has become too hot to ignore. Cramer briefly went positive on Baidu.com in a January 2007 lightning round when he stated, "True confession time. I have been itching to buy this BIDU, to recommend it on the show. I keep waiting for a down day. It is killing me. I am right now sanctioning a small buy in BIDU right here, praying that it will come down so I can say buy, buy, buy on the show. You've got a winner."

Soon after on 2/9/2007, he correctly predicted that the stock would trade dramatically lower after reporting the quarter's earnings. Disappointing Q1 earnings plus a worldwide selloff that originated in China brought the stock as low as 94, giving the confident investor a gift-like entry point for buying. Lately, Cramer has called the stock one of his favorites, and in an 8/2/2007 lightning round, he remarked of Baidu.com, "This company is selling much more cheaply than Google (GOOG). I like Google (GOOG), but Baidu is a winner. I can't fight it. I like Baidu."

Jim Cramer track record on BIDU

Sunday, September 9, 2007

Jim Cramer Analysis of Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Cramer has only been positive on integrated oil Exxon Mobil (XOM) since late 2006, when crude oil continued its undeniable run to 75 dollars per barrel and carried oil and oil service stocks with it. He had previously called XOM the worst integrated oil, referring viewers instead to best of breed name ConocoPhillips (COP). In a 2/2/2006 lightning round, Cramer said of XOM, "That's just a large bank masquerading as an oil company. They have not kept up with reserve growth." He consistently referred viewers to drillers such as Halliburton (HAL). More recently, though, he has been consistently bullish in 2007. In the main segment of the 11/29/2006 Mad Money show, he claimed, "XOM is the worst of the big oils," but called it a stock that has been annointed by mutual funds as a must own holding, and gave it a 100 dollar price target. "Some mutual funds decided to buy it and they won't stop buying it until they're finished setting up their massive positions"..."Catch the most miraculously irrational rally I've ever seen."

Jim Cramer track record on XOM

Saturday, September 8, 2007

Jim Cramer Performance of ConocoPhillips (COP) Picks

Jim Cramer's performance on ConocoPhillips (COP) has been mostly bullish since October 2005, having called it the best-of-breed integrated oil play over Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Jim's steadfast endorsement of the stock wavered in late 2006 as crude oil plummeted from the mid-70's per barrel to the low 50's. As Cramer proclaimed on 11/17/2006, "COP is an inexpensive stock, but that does not make it a good stock. Oil is at 55, and COP should be at 58." The actual price of ConocoPhillips shares was 62 at the time. In June and July of 2007, he called it a triple buy, an "annointed stock" and responded to an emailer saying he wish he owned it for his charitable trust. Not long after, Cramer bought the stock for his "Action Alerts Plus" charitable trust.

Jim Cramer track record on COP

Friday, August 24, 2007

Cramers Favorite Retail Trade is GameStop (GME)

GameStop (GME) has been one of Jim Cramer's best trades, having been mostly positive on the stock, it could have tripled your money in a little less than two years. After first featuring the company in November 2005, Cramer told viwers to take some profits on January 11, 2006 at the Mad Money Main Event Lightning Round.

On March 20, 2007, Cramer detracted from his bullish stance on the stock saying, "The new products have dried up a little, so I've got to tell you, I would not buy GameStop (GME) until we get closer to Christmas season. I think it does nothing for now." Four days later, GameStop issued Q1 2007 guidance above analyst estimates and the stock gained a quick 10%. Jim went positive the next day.

Cramer's latest call on GameStop (GME) came on August 22, when featured as a trade on the new Halo 3 launch on September 25th. According to Jim, the game would be a huge revenue generator for GameStop, not only selling games but selling new XBOX 360 consoles. "This game will be huge, but it won't be huge for Microsoft (MSFT)."

Jim Cramer track record on GME