The following is a guide to help you understand how I record MY INTERPRETATIONS of Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money” stock picks, and how I test Jim Cramer's stock picking performance. This is not an exhaustive list, and is subject to change at any time at my discretion in the interest of accuracy.
The date of the show and stock symbol are recorded. If a date to buy is given, this is recorded. Special conditions are sometimes noted (e.g.: if “this” happens then buy or sell the stock).
· Freebies: A Freebie occurs in a Special Section or Executive Interview if it is not a stock that is specifically being highlighted for that day. A Freebie occurs in a Caller, Mailer, “Lightning Round”, “Sudden Death”, or “Am I Diversified” section if the inquirer does not specifically mention that stock and the stock recommendation is not a substitute for the stock mentioned.
· Subs: A Sub is a substitute to a viewer’s inquiry. There can be multiple Subs for one stock.
· Freebies and Subs are similar in nature because they are brought up by Jim Cramer and not by a viewer.
· Price Targets: Price targets are set if Jim Cramer specifically sets a numeric price target, or if a percentage increase or decrease is predicted, that target will be calculated from the closing price that day. Also, a mention that a stock goes to the 40s will set the target at 40 if the stock is currently below 40 or 49 if the stock is currently above 50. A mention that the stock goes to the mid-40s will prompt a target of 45 and so on.
· Special prerecorded shows, instructional shows, and reruns are not included in any calculations.
· Any mentions of preferred stock are not recorded.
TYPE
Special Section, Caller, Mailer, “Lightning Round”, Executive Interview, “Sudden Death”, Pick of the Year, Pick of the Week, “Am I Diversified” (A.I.D.), “Beating the Racket: Head to Head with Herb Greenberg” (discontinued), Lightning Round Intro, Sudden Death Intro, Last Chance Comments (End of Show comments)
· Sections such as “Crystal Ball”, “Danger Zone”, “Attention Shoppers”, “Break the Analyst”, “Sell Block”, “Game Plan” etc…are less distinguishable and thus considered Special Sections and will be categorized together in all calculations.
· If a Special Section turns into an Executive Interview, the stock pick will be recorded as an Executive Interview.
· “Am I Diversified” is typically long-term in nature, and thus less association of short-term performance will be based upon these recommendations.
· Special Section, Executive Interview, Lightning Round Intro, Sudden Death Intro, Last Chance Comments are similar in nature because these are all brought up by Cramer and not by an inquirer.
· “Lightning Round”, “Sudden Death”, Caller, Mailer are similar in nature because all recommendations are in response to an inquirer.
· For live shows, audience members are regarded as callers.
· “Am I Nuts” participants are regarded as callers.
· If a caller asks about a stock after a Special Section, and the stock recommended in the Special Section is recommended in lieu of or in addition to the caller’s stock, the Special Section recommendation substitute/freebie will not be recorded. Though it makes sense that this would be recorded as a substitute to the caller’s stock, this happens almost every show and would dilute the value of recording the caller’s questions, since the questions are often about stocks in the same industry or sector as the Special Section recommendation just covered. This methodology does not apply to the Lightning Round.
ACTION
All actions are considered short-term in nature. In order of bullishness:
· Triple Buy: Must be specifically mentioned. In most calculations, Triple Buys are included as Strong Buys, unless otherwise noted.
· Strong Buy: Most stocks in Special Sections will be assumed to be Strong Buys unless they are part of a large list or part of a comparison of similar companies.
· Buy: Typical bullish recommendation. A specific recommendation is not needed if the bull sign is buzzed.
· Okay: Says the stock is “Okay” or says the stock is good but would rather see you in another stock.
· Cautious Bull: Any specific mention of caution of lack of confidence.
· Don’t Buy: Says “Don’t Buy” or doesn’t give an opinion but recommends another stock instead.
· Buy Dip: Says, “Buy the dip” or specifically says that he expects the stock to decline in the short-term but then expects it to rebound. This is considered a short-term bearish call for the purpose of our calculations. If the level of the stock at which Jim Cramer expects the stock to bounce from is mentioned, then that price is also recorded. If Cramer expects the short-term selling to last 10% down, then the level at which the buy is recommended is entered as 10% down from the closing price that day. Likewise, the same is done with point levels (e.g.: 3 points down) calculated from that day’s closing price.
· Profit: "Take profits" is considered a bearish call unless the action is directed towards a specific caller’s position if they have disclosed their gains AND a bullish note is added. If that is the case, then the call constitutes of Buy.
· Pig: Pig is entered only when the words “Pig” or “Hog” are mentioned by Cramer, and is considered a bearish call unless the action is directed towards a specific caller’s position if they have disclosed their gains AND a bullish note is added. If that is the case, then the call constitutes of Buy.
· Sell: It must be specifically mentioned by Jim Cramer that the stock will go down to record a Sell. An ambiguous bearish call with a bear sign will be entered as a sell. An ambiguous bearish call will sometimes be entered as Don’t Buy. This occurs because of my interpretation that sometimes Jim Cramer wants you to sell the stock only if you own it. Accuracy is in my best interest.
· Strong Sell: Cramer must FREAK OUT to issue a Strong Sell. FREAK OUT is, of course, relative to his usual demeanor.
· Triple Sell: Must be specifically mentioned. In most calculations, Triple Sells are included as Strong Sells, unless otherwise noted.
NOTABLE TAGS ASSOCIATED WITH STOCK PICKS MAY INCLUDE:
Best of Breed (BoB), Owns for charitable trust (Owns), Mentions management, Credits an analyst’s recommendation, Credits a news story, Possible acquisition or buyout target, Speculative stock, Earnings, Undervalued, Expensive stock, Turnaround, Accounting irregularities, Sector move, China play, Favorite stock, Sticking with it, Hated stock, Levered to natural gas, Stock is done, Flatline, Apologizes for previous being wrong on a stock, Regional to National, Blesses this stock, Invites management to appear on show, Wishes he owned for charitable trust, Has wanted to recommend, etc...
· “Best of Breed” includes mentions of “Best in Show”
· Mentions management is applied when the name of an executive of the company is mentioned, his opinion of the current management is mentioned, or a change in management is mentioned. Also applied to “well run” companies. This is not applied to Executive Interview sections.
· Earnings are tagged only when Cramer specifically talks about a recent quarter's earnings or specifically the coming next quarter's earnings. This often happens in the “Game Plan” segment. In this way, we can see how well the earnings predictions have faired.
CALCULATION
Please note that all performance calculations will be starting from the NEXT DAY’S OPEN PRICE after the show unless otherwise mentioned.
· Pink Sheets, other OTC stocks and foreign issues are not included in calculations unless otherwise mentioned. This rule does not apply to ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) of foreign corporations.
Thursday, February 8, 2007
Guidelines of Interpretation
posted by stockTagger on 2/08/2007
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