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Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Jim Cramer Google Inc (GOOG) Track Record

Google Inc (GOOG) is consistently the most mentioned stock on Mad Money (currently with 143 mentions) and one of the most popular stocks among retail and institutional investors. Jim Cramer has been mostly positive on Google from its recent rise to nearly 560 from 300 not less than two years ago. By far, this has been one of Cramer's best recommendations.

Since Jim has been consistently positive on Google (GOOG), I'm listing here some of his more interesting calls, including many of his negative comments that seem to be uncanny in their timing. Does it ever pay to be bearish on Google stock?

1/25/2006: Take profits ahead of quarter

3/6/2006: Don't buy until old low. "Tough story"

3/13/2006: Yahoo (YHOO) downside more limited than GOOG

3/23/2006: Gets added to S&P after the close. "Goes up another 25"

3/29/2006: "Wait for a pullback to do a 'mon-back"

7/18/2006: "Everything high multiple is shrinking" referring to Panera Bread (PNRA), Starbucks (SBUX), Whole Foods Market (WFMI), and Google (GOOG)

7/25/2006: "I wouldn't give up"..."GOOG is good. I want to own GOOG"

8/8/2006: Recommends IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI) over Google (GOOG)

9/12/2006: "Really cheap" - cites the calendar, autumn being historically strong for tech - Strong Buy

2/2/2007: "The only thing that matters is what the big mutual funds and hedge funds will pay for it"..."The big boys don't like decelerating revenue growth" - Sell

Lately, after the most recent quarter, Jim suggested getting into Google (GOOG) stock at 200, but just said it was done going down yesterday. He also has recently called it a "Cramer-favorite" and a stock he'd like to own for his charitable trust.

So can Google capture enough pay-per-click dough to get the stock back to its old highs and beyond?

Jim Cramer track record on GOOG

Monday, July 30, 2007

Jim Cramer Track Record on NYSE Euronext (NYX)

NYSE Euronext (NYX) has been a debacle for Mad Money viewers ever since Jim Cramer named it his growth stock of the year for 2007 on January 4th in front of second place Apple (AAPL) and third place Cisco Systems (CSCO).

The closing price was 95 on the day that Jim proclaimed it the growth stock of the year. The stock then climbed to an intraday high of 112 just four days later and hasn't recovered since, now sitting near the mid-seventies, a full 20% or more loss for loyal Cramericans who bought after the "stock of the year" recommendation.

Back on March 17, 2006, Cramer was calling NYSE Euronext (NYX) (before the Euronext acquisition) overvalued on an earnings basis. Just a month later, Jim changed his mind giving the stock one thumb up on merits of being in the same company of such high flying exchanges as CBOT Holdings (BOT). A month after, in May 2006, he told viewers "Don't Buy, tough judgement." In August 2006, he gave the stock a passionate "Sell, sell, sell, they're going to overpay for that Euro thing [Euronext]." Just a month later in September, Jim told viewers of Mad Money that he was going positive on NYX: "I thought NYX was going to spend too much on Euronext. Now I think NYX should buy more exchanges around the globe"..."How about a 25x multiple on those $4? You've got a $100 stock. If they can deliver just 15% growth over the next couple of years, they deserve that multiple, and this stock could go to $100!" Well the stock did eventually make it to $100 and beyond, but was hype primarily to blame?

On December 9, 2006, Cramer gave an even more extravagant price target for NYX, "What would you do if I told you I'd found an $87 stock that I think goes to $250 a share in a couple of years?" and gave several reasons that the stock would reach the price target. Reason 1: New computer systems will speed up trading. Reason 2: The New York Stock Exchange probably won't overpay for Euronext. Reason 3: Management at The New York Stock Exchange is finally getting it together. Reason 4: The Euronext deal will bring unexpected savings to The New York Stock Exchange. Reason 5: NYX is going to be a global exchange. Reason 6: New computer systems will prove to be more cost-efficient.

Finally, Cramer christened NYSE Euronext (NYX) as the growth stock of the year and announced a price target of 240. "The New York Stock Exchange is my growth stock of the year for 2007 because it should make you more money than any other growth stock I follow."

Since then, NYSE Euronext (NYX) has traveled nearly straight downhill, no doubt contributing to Cramer's daily "existential crisis" as he likes to say of his life on the Mad Money show. While holding NYX for his charitable trust, Cramer continues to defend NYX saying that he's "sticking by it" when no one else will. He has called it the most hated stock on wall street and even brought Duncan Niederauer onto the show, NYX's Co-President and Co-COO, apparently to ask him why his stock wasn't going up. Shown below is the complete history of Jim Cramer's NYSE Euronext (NYX) track record on Mad Money since the inception of this database.

Jim Cramer track record on NYX

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Jim Cramer Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Mad Money Performance

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is one of the most mentioned stocks on Jim Cramer's Mad Money as well as one of the most asked about stocks by callers to the show, so I decided to see how well Jim Cramer was able to navigate trading of this stock over its last two bumpy years from the XBOX 360 rollout, to the Windows Vista launch and its competition in search advertising with Google Inc (GOOG).

Cramer had owned Microsoft until July 2006 for his "Action Alerts Plus" charitable trust where he apparently sold at the bottom after the delay of Windows Vista and an earnings disappointment. His calls leading up till then would be a bit confusing to the casual watcher of the show: 3/6/2006 "Going higher" - Buy, 3/17/2006 cites Vista Blowup - Don't Buy, 4/4/2006 "Buy before it gets to 30" - Buy. At the bottom, the calls are mostly bearish: 5/15/2006 "I would no longer sell Microsoft, its just too darn low" - Buy, 5/16/2006 "Paddles, clear!" - Don't Buy, 5/24/2006 "One cautious thumb up" - Buy, 5/30/2006 Don't Buy, 6/20/2006 "Probably done going down" - Buy.

Cramer did eventually jump on the Microsoft (MSFT) momentum train when it became clear that the Vista launch was not completely botched, but he became less bullish when the stock broke through 30. His calls in 2007 include: 2/12/2007 "One of America's greatest companies at a discount" - Buy, 2/15/2007 "There's nothing to offer in software" - Don't Buy. However, he recently turned positive on MSFT on 7/13/2007 recommending it along with the Four Horsemen of Tech Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Research in Motion (RIMM), Amazon.com (AMZN), as well as other tech names Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Cisco Systems (CSCO), SanDisk (SNDK), Texas Instruments (TXN), EMC Corporation (EMC), QUALCOMM (QCOM), and Intel (INTC). For the technology sector, according to Cramer, "this is 1995, not 1999."

Jim Cramer track record on MSFT

Jim Cramer Rides Harley Davidson (HOG) Momentum

Jim Cramer has mentioned Harley-Davidson (HOG) 21 different times on Mad Money but consistency lately leaves something to be desired. Cramer's latest call on Harley-Davidson (HOG) is bearish, after riding along with bullish momentum in 2006, the stock has since languished in 2007. On November 14, 2006, Cramer called this stock a triple buy, but his latest call cited a risk-reward of 6 points down and only 4 points up. Cramer's calls on this stock so far in 2007 have lost viewers money.

Jim Cramer track record on HOG

Friday, July 13, 2007

Cramer Insists on Alcoa (AA) Takeover in 2007

Jim Cramer first mentioned Alcoa Inc (AA) as a possible takeover target by private equity in the January 31, 2007 "Sudden Death" segment of Mad Money. While previously, he had referred callers to best-of-breed steel company Alcan (AL), since his first recommendation of Alcoa (AA) in 2007, the stock has climbed 46%, beating the S&P 500 return of 7.7% over the same time period. On March 13, 2007, Cramer again reiterated his view that Alcoa (AA), as well as The Dow Chemical Company (DOW), were ripe for a potential acquisition by a private equity firm. Since then, Jim has been quoted many times as saying that Alcoa (AA) will not be public by the end of 2007, and now that Alcoa (AA) has retracted its bid for Alcan (AL) and Rio Tinto (RTP) looks to be Alcan's true acquirer, Alcoa (AA) may well be acquired by the end of this year.

Jim Cramer track record on AA

Jim Cramer Turns Positive on Energizer Holdings (ENR)

Jim Cramer has recently turned positive on Energizer Holdings (ENR) as one of his 80 to 100 to 120 stocks. That is the emperical observation that typically stocks in this bull market that make it to 80 are winners and then power their way to 100 and eventually to 120. On July 7, 2007, Cramer touted Energizer Holdings (ENR) with a price target of 120. The stock traded up approximately 1.6% in after hours trading, and the next day it traded up another 4%. Viewers who bought the morning of the show saw a gain of nearly 7% in the three days after. Though this stock has been one of the least mentioned on the show, expect interest in the name to pick up as ipod adapter batteries and Energizer's association with Apple Inc (AAPL) may well power the stock to this recent price target of 120.

Jim Cramer track record on ENR

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Cramer Buys Whole Foods Market (WFMI) High and Sells Low

Apparently this has been Jim Cramer's stategy for trading Whole Foods Market (WFMI) stock: Buy High, Sell Low. Lately, he has been consistently negative on the stock after being burned by a long stretch of disappointing quarters calling the stock a "bearish story" citing multiple contraction and slowing growth. He has called it too risky and too expensive. After a disappointing quarter at the beginning of 2006, Cramer was right back on the wagon with Whole Foods Market (WFMI) proclaiming that it had "paid its dues" on April 18, 2006 and recommending it all the way to June 2006 when he called it secular growth story. Since then, though, WFMI no longer has a nosebleed multiple and its attempt to buy smaller rival Wild Oats Markets (OATS) may be blocked by the Federal Trade Commission. Thankfully, though, viewers of Mad Money have missed WFMI's precipitous slide to the high 30's from 55 when Cramer abandoned it in July 2006.

Jim Cramer track record on WFMI

Cramer Misses Big Gain in Rio Tinto plc (RTP)

Jim Cramer first recommended Rio Tinto (RTP) in the main block of Mad Money as one of six mineral stocks on February 21, 2006 along with Manitowoc Company (MTW), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX), BHP Billiton (BHP), Caterpillar (CAT), and worst-of-breed name Terex (TEX). Viewers would have captured a small gain of nearly 8% until January 8, 2007 when Cramer briefly proclaimed "The commodity boom is over" and suggested the larger Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) as the only large-cap metals play he was willing to endorse. Well, the commodities boom is certainly not over yet and since March 2007, the large-cap metal miners have been some of the best performing stocks out there. Viewers of Mad Money would have missed a gain of 48% in Rio Tinto (RTP) by the time it was recommended again in May 2007, but if they had swapped into RIO as Cramer had recommended, they could have captured an even more impressive gain of 56% in just four months.

Jim Cramer track record on RTP

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) and the Four Horsemen of Mining

Last night on Mad Money, Jim Cramer outlined his Four Horsemen of Mining, including Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO), BHP Billiton (BHP), Rio Tinto (RTP), and new favorite Teck Cominco (TCK). Cramer has called Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) or just "Rio" for short, a favorite of his, undervalued, and has twice cited monopoly power as a reason to own this mining conglomerate. His call to double down in February 2006 worked well until the market plunged in April 2006. Investors didn't see previous highs again until 2007. Cramer has been consistently positive on the stock except for a don't buy call in the September 13, 2006 "Sudden Death" when he suggested America Movil (AMX) over RIO because of its higher growth.

Jim Cramer track record on RIO

Cramer Sees New Highs for The Boeing Company (BA)

The Boeing Company (BA) is one of the most mentioned stocks by Jim Cramer on Mad Money, currently with seventy-five mentions overall. This stock has also been highlighted fifteen times as a stock to buy since January 2006. Most recently, Jim has predicted for this high flyer to reach 120 while the bull market still rolls. Cramer's first prediction that Boeing stock would go to 100 came on April 21, 2006, when it was climbing towards 90, before a bearish market pulled it down towards 70. Viewers can appreciate the performance of Cramer's calls here, as all but one buy dip call have been well timed.

Jim Cramer track record on BA

Monday, July 2, 2007

Virgin Media Inc (VMED) Takeover Predicted by Jim Cramer

Jim Cramer has been consistently positive on Virgin Media Inc (VMED) since May 2006, back when it was NTL Inc (NTLI), when he featured it in a special section, citing the triple play and Richard Branson's soon to be leadership after the acquisition of Virgin Media (VMED). Virgin Media was again featured on the January 23, 2007 show when Cramer speculated that it could be a takeover target. Now, with a bid from Carlyle Group, Cramer is getting his wish with Virgin Media trading up 15% to 28 in pre-market trading, improving a very ostentatious but hardly impressive takeover targets performance record.

Jim Cramer track record on VMED

Cramer Speculates on Higher Price for Dow Jones Company (DJ)

Jim Cramer had been negative on Dow Jones Company (DJ) until the January 31, 2007 mail segment of Mad Money. After Rupert Murdoch's proposed bid for the Dow Jones Company was announced, Cramer wrote this article for NY Times saying "Murdoch was willing to pay $74 a share more than a decade ago. Today, the company is more vulnerable, and he can get it for less." Before the article, on the May 31, 2007 lightning round, Cramer stated "I am telling you that, without a doubt, the younger Bancrofts right now are huddling about how to depose the trustee," and "This deal's going through, and that's my gift to you!"

Jim Cramer track record on DJ